Democrat Kamala Harris has a sweeping lead over Republican Donald Trump − among voters who have already cast their ballots, that is.
A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll shows the vice president leading the former president by 63%-34%, close to 2-1, among those who have already voted.
That preference turns around among those who plan to wait until Election Day to vote, with Trump ahead 52%-35%.
As some states have begun early mail-in and in-person voting, one in seven respondents said they had already voted. A third said they plan to vote early; that group supported Harris by 52%-39%. And nearly half said they’ll wait until Election Day.
Overall, Harris was favored by 45%, Trump by 44% − a coin-toss contest.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cell phone Oct. 14-18, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Among those who have already voted, one in five volunteered “abortion rights/women’s rights” as their most important issue, second only to the economy/inflation.
The early turnout among Harris’ supporters carries advantages for Democrats.
“First, large Harris voter leads are being banked every day,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “Second, it gives the Harris campaign some time to persuade Election Day voters.” That would include appeals to “some previously reliable Democratic voters who have drifted away over the past few weeks, like young Black and Latino men.”
In 2020, when early voting surged because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the partisan differences on when people vote sometimes fueled misleading perceptions on election night. Some states don’t allow early votes to be counted until Election Day. That means the first returns based only on in-person voting created a “red mirage” in Pennsylvania and elsewhere − that is, big and misleading leads for Trump before early votes were factored in.
Democrats were about twice as likely as Republicans to cast mail-in ballots four years ago, in part because Trump claimed without evidence that early voting was subject to fraud. This year, the GOP is doing more to urge its supporters to vote early.
The early votes for Harris are also boosting Democrats down the ballot.
Those who have already voted say by 63%-33% that they support Democratic congressional candidates. Overall, the poll found a 47% Democratic to 45% Republican split on the generic congressional ballot.
Election 2024 updates: Harris on anxiety and gummies; Trump jabs Abraham Lincoln
With just 15 days until Election Day, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are hitting the battleground states that could determine the race for the White House.
Trump on Monday toured damage from Hurricane Helene in the Asheville, North Carolina, area. He then hosted a rally in Greenville, North Carolina, located in the eastern part of the Tar Heel state. In the early evening, Trump is scheduled to meet with faith leaders near Charlotte.
Harris is making a 3-state swing with former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., Monday with stops in key suburban counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The Republican and Democratic nominees will lay out their plans on the economy, the southern border and other top issues facing the nation as they court voters in these pivotal states, which could be make-or-break in November.
Keep up with the USA TODAY Network’s live election coverage.
Harris mocks Trump’s dancing, suggests he’s ‘hiding’ a condition
Vice President Kamala Harris sought to turn the tables on former President Donald Trump at a Monday evening event, where she questioned his mental soundness and suggested he and his staff are hiding something.
Trump and his allies have accused Harris of participating in a cover-up since President Joe Biden, 81, struggled to get his points across at a June presidential debate. Harris has, in turn, questioned why Trump has not released his medical records and backed out of interviews.
“I wonder what is he hiding. I also wonder what his staff is trying to hide by preventing or suggesting he not debate me again, not do these interviews,” Harris told conservative commentator Charlie Sykes on Monday during a moderated conversation in Wisconsin.
The jab came amid a sharpened pitch from Harris, 60, that Trump, 78, is unstable and unfit for the presidency.
At the event in Waukesha County with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, Harris also mocked Trump’s lengthy dancing at a town hall event this month.
“Would it be called just a solo dance?” she asked. Cheney said, “Dance is really generous.”
Trump (again) throws shade at Abraham Lincoln
Less than a week after questioning President Abraham Lincoln’s leadership for not settling the Civil War, Trump again hit Honest Abe on Monday – over border issues.
In what may have been a joke, Trump also managed to mock President George Washington while discussing the endorsement of a border patrol union during a rally in Greenville, N.C.
A union official supposedly said “I’m the greatest president there’s ever been,” according to Trump. “I said, ‘what about George Washington?’ … Nah, you’re better … ‘What about Lincoln? What about Abraham Lincoln?’ … Nope, you’re better.”
“He said I’m tougher on the border than Abraham Lincoln, right, than Honest Abe.”
Perhaps he was referring to the Confederate army’s incursions into Maryland and Pennsylvania (where it met defeat at Antietam and Gettysburg). Who knows?
– David Jackson
Trump touts his odds in betting markets
Donald Trump has his eye on the gambling lines.
Trump told supporters at a rally in Concord, North Carolina that he’s doing “really well” against Kamala Harris and pointed to political betting markets as proof.
“I know nobody in this room gambles, but some of the gambling polls are really at that like 65 to 35 or something like that,” Trump said.
Overseas bettors on sites like the crypto trading platform Polymarket are predicting that Trump will win the election by a wide margin against Harris.
“Does anybody in this room gamble? No, no, no great Christians don’t gamble, do they?” Trump said.
Traditional polls, meanwhile, show Trump and Harris locked in a close race. The latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found Harris at at 45% and Trump at 44% nationally.
– Karissa Waddick
Crude talk and the NFL: Trump doubles down on his lead with male voters
Donald Trump, who is leading in the polls with male voters, over the weekend referenced a golfing legend’s manhood, interspersed his speeches with curse words and attended an NFL game to ensure he holds onto that key constituency.
It’s a strategy that involves doubling down on exciting the Republican presidential nominee’s most ardent supporters and emphasizing turnout among low propensity male voters with a hyper-masculine style, one his critics call a corrosive version of masculinity. Meanwhile, he is barely nodding at – and may be alienating – the suburban women swing voters once considered key campaign targets.
Still, Trump’s approach has him competitive in the polls − neck-and-neck with Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris – and it’s one he’s long employed, even if it’s unusual for most politicians.
“I’ve never seen anyone focus more strenuously on current supporters rather than trying to expand the pool of potential voters,” said Frank Luntz, a GOP pollster and frequent Fox News contributor with more than three decades of political experience.
Trump blames the media for questions about ‘cognitive decline’
All that odd Trump behavior in recent days?
The former president blames the media, denouncing its “level of meanness.”
At a rally in Greenville, N.C., Trump did not discuss incidents in the past week, including a 40-minute music-and-dance-a-thon after a truncated town hall in Oaks, Pa., his use of profanity at Catholic charity dinner in New York City, and his locker room tribute to the physical attributes of legendary golfer Arnold Palmer in his hometown of Latrobe, Pa.
In Trump’s telling, the stories are all about him misusing words.
“All these idiots back there will say ‘he’s cognitively impaired,'” Trump told supporters, referring to the press pen. “‘Oh, I heard a word that wasn’t exactly proper. He’s cognitive.’ They’re sick people.”
Who’s winning the presidential race? Track the latest polls
This year’s presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is heated and ongoing polls reflect the division of opinions on who should become the nation’s next commander-in-chief. With just two weeks to the 2024 general election, here’s what the polls, odds and a historian have said over the past eight weeks and how they continue to change as we head toward Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds?
- ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.2% over Trump 46.4% – by 1.8%, a slimmer margin again this week. This is compared to 48.5% over Trump 46.1% last week, compared to 48.5% over Trump 45.9% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8% three weeks ago compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% six weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump at 43.9% seven weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% over Trump at 43.7% eight weeks ago.
- 270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 1.8% over Trump, compared to 2.5% over Trump last week, compared to Harris 2.8% over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris 3.7% over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump six weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump to seven weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump eight weeks ago.
- realclearpolling shows that betting odds favor Harris with a spread of +0.9 over Trump, compared to +1.4 over Trump over last week’s odds, compared to +2 two weeks ago, which were tied, compared to Harris favored with a spread of +1.8 over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris favor of +2.3 over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris +2 over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 over Trump six weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump seven weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 over Trump eight weeks ago.
- Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, in favor of Trump 61.4% over Harris 38.6%, a much larger margin of nearly 23% over last week’s odds of Trump 56.9% over Harris 42.6%, compared with Trump 53.4% over Harris 45.9% two weeks ago, compared with Harris favored over Trump by 2% three weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% four weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% five weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 1% six weeks ago or compared to Trump over Harris by 4% seven weeks ago or compared to Harris leading by 1% point over Trump eight weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Monday, Oct. 21, 2024.
Historian Allan Lichtman reveals 2024 presidential pick
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor of history at American University and has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. He claims to use a set of 13 “keys” to make his picks, which range from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
How accurate have polls or odds been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different audiences can often draw higher margins for error. According to Pew Research, confidence in the public opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020. In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.
When is Election Day 2024?
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. Polling sites in New York will be open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.
When is early voting in New York?
In-person early voting for the general election begins Saturday, Oct. 26 and runs through Sunday, Nov. 3. Contact your county’s Board of Elections for voting locations.
When is the deadline to register to vote in New York?
The deadline for the general election is Saturday, Oct. 26. All applications – including in-person applications – must be received by this date.
How to register to vote in New York
There are multiple ways to register to vote in New York:
- Register online at elections.ny.gov
- Register in person at your county\’s Board of Elections, at any state agency-based voter registration center, or at the Department of Motor Vehicles
- Register by mail by requesting a form. You can call 1-800-367-8683 or can request a form via New York\’s Voter Registration Form Request mailing list. Once the form is completed, print, sign and date the form and mail it to your county\’s Board of Elections by Oct. 26.
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