There is a simple way to cut through the noise about whose economy is stronger — Donald Trump’s or Joe Biden’s. Pick a moment in time under each president and compare the numbers side by side.

The best comparison is the end of 2023 — just as anger with the economy hit a high point — versus the end of 2025, similar points in each presidency with enough data to assess. I’d certainly rather have the 2023 economy over what we have now.

Start with jobs. In December 2023, the unemployment rate was 3.8%. In December 2025, it was 4.4%. There are now about 1.1 million more unemployed Americans than there were two years ago. In late 2023, there was more than one open job for every unemployed worker. Today there are more unemployed than job openings. Even more worrying, help wanted ad placements have collapsed to May 2020 levels, indicating little economic confidence from firms.

Wage growth in December 2023 was at 4.1% year over year. In December 2025, it was at 3.7%. Adjusting for inflation, these are nearly identical, so workers aren’t falling behind on wages. The problem is that fewer of them have jobs, and fewer firms are looking to hire.

Growth tells the same story. In the fourth quarter of 2024, GDP grew at a fabulously healthy 3.4%. Last quarter’s growth was a stagnant 1.4%. One way to understand the difference: At 3.4% growth, the economy and standard of living double every 21 years. At 1.4%, it takes 51 years.

Surveys of business and consumer confidence have collapsed alongside the hard data. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is near the lowest levels ever recorded in the survey’s history, which dates to 1946.

On inflation, the picture is more mixed. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, the PCE excluding food and energy, was sitting at 2.1% year-over-year growth in late 2023, well within the Fed’s comfort level for lowering interest rates. As of last measure in the fall of 2025, the same measure was at 2.7%, above the Fed’s comfort level and rising.

The headline measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index, was actually higher by about 0.5% in late 2023 than it was last November. All that means is that prices are higher now but rising about the same pace or slightly slower than in 2023. As a consumer, it is hard to assess these things accurately. After all, does anyone remember a full list of grocery prices month to month?

The bigger tell is how Federal Reserve economists were considering the path of inflation in late 2023 versus today. In late 2023, the Fed was poised to reduce rates as inflation eased. They did so on three occasions in 2024, and then again in mid-2025. Today, despite worsening labor markets, there are no cuts on the horizon. In fact, it seems equally likely that the coming year will see rate hikes rather than rate cuts.

In late 2023 and late 2025, both stock indices and home prices were hitting record levels, with both higher in 2025 than in 2023. For households who own stocks and homes — still the majority of American households, typically through mutual funds or retirement accounts — this part of the economy is clearly favorable today. If you don’t own a home or stocks, you may view this fact less favorably.

So why is the economy in a stronger position on assets but weaker on jobs, growth and confidence? The answer lies in what caused each period’s conditions.

The high prices and low unemployment of 2023 were a direct result of our rebound from the COVID pandemic. The large stimulus bills — the CARES Act signed by Trump and the American Rescue Plan signed by Biden — fueled inflation risk. The Federal Reserve reacted too slowly, delivering inflation that was modest by historical standards but unfamiliar to most households.

A year into Trump’s term, voters say Biden was better

President Trump has become so politically toxic that voters now say Joe Biden — whose unpopularity forced him into early retirement — did a better job as president, according to three new polls.

Why it matters: One year in, Trump has squandered virtually every advantage that won him the presidency. The White House has nine months to turn the ship around before a potential midterm wipeout for Republicans.

Zoom in: Three national surveys point to the same alarming trend for a president who’s done everything in his power to erase his predecessor’s legacy.

• Harvard CAPS/Harris (Jan. 28–29): Mark Penn’s polling firm found that 51% of registered voters say Trump is doing a worse job than Biden, compared with 49% who say he’s doing better.
• Rasmussen Reports (Feb. 2–4): The Trump-friendly pollster is fending off MAGA criticism after finding that 48% of likely voters say Biden did a better job as president, compared with 40% who chose Trump. Another 8% said the two presidents have performed “about the same.”
• YouGov/Economist (Feb. 6–9): This survey found that 46% of U.S. adults say Trump is doing a worse job than Biden, compared with 40% who say he’s doing better. Another 7% said “about the same.”

Between the lines: In the throes of Biden’s 2024 polling collapse, his allies often complained about “Trump amnesia” — the notion that voters had collectively memory-holed the chaos of the president’s first term.

• One year into Trump 2.0, his MAGA movement is making a similar case — that Americans are discounting how much Trump has done to curb the record border crossings and inflation of the Biden years.
• “Nearly 80 million Americans gave President Trump a resounding Election Day mandate to end Joe Biden’s economic disaster and immigration crisis,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement.
• “The Trump administration remains laser-focused on continuing to cool inflation, accelerate economic growth, secure our border, and mass deport criminal illegal aliens.”

Zoom out: But even under the hood of Trump’s polling, the silver linings are disappearing.

• His signature issues are now liabilities: 49% of adults “strongly disapprove” of how Trump has handled border security and immigration, according to a new NBC News poll.

• Trump’s net approval on the economy (-18) is 26 points lower than it was at this point in his first term — and 53 points lower among independents, according to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten.
• Young voters have cratered: The YouGov/Economist poll found Trump at -42 net approval among 18–29 year-olds — a 51-point swing from +9 at the start of his presidency.

What they’re saying: “If you know anything about Donald Trump, you know that he built his two presidential victories on winning voters [who are] without a college degree,” Enten said.

• “Well, Donald Trump’s base with non-college voters is absolutely collapsing.”

Reality check: Don’t mistake this for Biden nostalgia.

• At least nine Biden administration alumni are running for Congress or governor. Few are mentioning the president they served under in campaign materials.
• A blue wave is not inevitable: Republicans have a massive cash advantage heading into the midterms, swamping Democrats to the tune of $550 million, according to the New York Times.

The bottom line: Gallup reports American optimism about the future has fallen to its lowest level in nearly two decades, with just 59.2% expecting high-quality lives five years from now.

 

Former US President Biden says Trump administration does not have American values

‘We are in a tough spot, folks—we’ve got an administration that doesn’t share any of the values that we have and I don’t think I’m exaggerating a little bit,’ says Joe Biden.

Former US President Joe Biden said Friday that the US is in a “tough spot” because the Trump administration does not have American values.

“We are in a tough spot, folks—we’ve got an administration that doesn’t share any of the values that we have and I don’t think I’m exaggerating a little bit,” Biden said at the funeral of civil rights leader Rev. Jesse Jackson.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Biden on issues including the economy, immigration and foreign policy, as well as raising questions about his health.

The remarks came amid tensions in the Middle East following US and Israeli strikes against Iran on Feb. 28 and subsequent Iranian retaliation across the region.

Winter can be especially challenging for Michelle Wright, owner of Michelle’s Place Child Care Center, with two locations in southwestern Illinois, across the Mississippi River from St. Louis.

Seasonal illnesses and bad weather often keep kids home. On certain days, Wright finds herself scrambling to figure out if she’ll be able to pay her teachers.

“That staff comes ready to work, maybe spent gas [money], maybe took an Uber, a bus to get here, and then six kids are out and I know the numbers are down,” she says. “I have to send that staff home.”

That’s because many states, including Illinois, use their own money and federal funds to pay out child care subsidies for low-income families based on attendance. When overall attendance for the month drops below 70%, Wright stands to lose some of the income she was expecting.

It’s a unique challenge for child care providers like Wright who operate in some of America’s poorer communities. Some 90% of the families Wright serves receive child care subsidies, so most of her income comes from the state, with payments made after the care has been provided.

Wright knows things would be easier if she had opened her centers in more affluent areas. Families that don’t qualify for subsidies and instead pay for child care on their own typically pay up front. They’re on the hook for the tuition whether their children attend or not, so providers can count on that income.

Michelle Wright operates two child care centers in low-income communities in Illinois. She says she chose the area because of the need. Some 90% of the families she serves qualify for child care subsidies.

Andrea Hsu/NPR

In 2024, the Biden administration finalized a rule aimed at giving providers like Wright more predictability. The rule requires states to pay child care subsidies the way most American families pay tuition — in advance and based on enrollment, not on who shows up.

A number of states have made the switch. Others, including Illinois, applied for waivers, giving them more time to comply with the rule. But now, the Trump administration has proposed getting rid of the rule altogether, citing concerns about fraud.

 

Fraud allegations drew child care into the spotlight

Across the U.S., the families of some 1.4 million children get help paying for child care through the Child Care and Development Fund. That federal program was pulled into the spotlight after allegations of child care fraud erupted in Minnesota in late December.

The allegations, waged by a YouTuber, led first to an attempt by the Trump administration to freeze child care subsidies in five Democratic-led states. The announcement prompted an outcry and a lawsuit that has prevented a freeze, at least for now.

A couple of weeks later, the Department of Health and Human Services released a video using the fraud allegations as a jumping-off point to announce the Trump administration’s proposal for repealing the Biden rule.

In the video, Jim O’Neill, an HHS deputy secretary who has since left the agency, says forcing states to pay child care subsidies up front and based on enrollment created vulnerabilities.

“Those policies weakened accountability and made fraud easier, not harder,” O’Neill says.

While child care providers have been prosecuted for fraud in years past, including in Minnesota, such cases are rare. The Administration for Children and Families, the federal agency that oversees the Child Care and Development Fund, reported a payment error rate of less than 4% in 2023.

In recent years, many states have stepped up oversight, including by having state inspectors make more unannounced visits to child care centers. Child care providers are required to submit daily attendance logs to state agencies.

Still, child care advocates worry the Trump administration’s focus on fraud could get in the way of progress.

 

Bipartisan support for strengthening child care

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, stabilizing child care has become a bipartisan issue, with Republican-led states among those making changes to strengthen the industry.

Last year, amid growing recognition that child care is essential to the state’s economy, Missouri’s Republican-controlled legislature approved the change to pay child care subsidies in advance and based on enrollment, not on attendance logs. Beta testing has been underway.

But late last year, the state announced it needed more time to ensure the new system works correctly and to secure long-term funding.

Casey Hanson, deputy director of the statewide policy and advocacy group Kids Win Missouri, notes that the change will bring additional costs.

“We think [it’s] the right thing to do. It’s the way providers are paid in the private market. It’s how we’re going to create a more sustainable system,” says Hanson. “But it is expensive for states, and state budgets are tough.”

Denise Wiese, executive director of Lemay Child and Family Center, a nonprofit center in St. Louis County, hopes the change will be one of many Missouri makes to ensure the viability of high-quality child care providers.

“We have to take care of the children in our communities,” she says. “They’re the ones that are going to lead this country and lead the state 30 years from now, and we just want them to start off on a strong footing.”

 

Jesse Jackson’s son blasts Obama, Biden for using father’s memorial to take shots at Trump

“He maintained a tense relationship with the political order, not because the presidents were white or black, but the demands of our message, the demands of speaking for the least of these – those who are disinherited, the damned, the dispossessed, the disrespected – demanded not Democratic or Republican solutions, but demanded a consistent, prophetic voice that at no point in time ever sold us out as people.

“And it speaks volumes about who the Rev. Jesse Jackson was.”

Jackson died at 84 last month at his Chicago home.

During Friday’s service at Chicago’s House of Hope, Obama warned about the state of the nation, calling each day a “new assault on our democratic institutions.”

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