Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here’s how
The nationally recognized Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris picking up support from women to surpass Donald Trump in a ruby-red state he has won twice
Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.
The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has abandoned his independent presidential campaign to support Trump but remains on the Iowa ballot, gets 3% of the vote. That’s down from 6% in September and 9% in June.
Fewer than 1% say they would vote for Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 1% would vote for someone else, 3% aren’t sure and 2% don’t want to say for whom they already cast a ballot.
The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, which include those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote, was conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28-31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The results come as Trump and Harris have focused their attention almost exclusively on seven battleground states that are expected to shape the outcome of the election. Neither has campaigned in Iowa since the presidential primaries ended, and neither campaign has established a ground presence in the state.
A victory for Harris would be a surprising development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.
The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said.
Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.
Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.
“I like her policies on reproductive health and having women choosing their own health care, and the fact that I think that she will save our democracy and follow the rule of law,” said Linda Marshall, a 79-year-old poll respondent from Cascade who has already cast her absentee ballot for Harris.
The registered Democrat said she identifies as pro-life but doesn’t think anyone should make that choice for somebody else.
“I just believe that if the Republicans can decide what you do with your body, what else are they going to do to limit your choice, for women?” she said.
One aspect where Trump does better than Harris: A greater share of his supporters than hers say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about their pick.
Seventy-six percent of Trump supporters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about their choice, while another 23% say they are mildly or not that enthusiastic.
For Harris, 71% are extremely or very enthusiastic — down from 80% in September — while 29% are mildly or not that enthusiastic.
The poll shows few likely Iowa voters remain undecided, with 91% saying their minds are made up, compared with 80% in September.
That includes 96% of Harris supporters who are firm in their choice and 95% of Trump supporters.
Independents swing to Kamala Harris, but there’s a gender gap, Iowa Poll shows
In 2020, the Register’s Iowa Poll showed that Biden and Trump were tied among all likely voters in September. But the final poll before Election Day that year showed independents breaking for Trump, and he ultimately won by 8 percentage points over Biden.
This year, independents appear to be turning the other way toward Harris — a move fueled by a growing support among independent women.
Independent likely voters, who have supported Trump in every other Iowa Poll this year, now favor Harris, 46% to 39%.
Now, independent women choose Harris over Trump 57% to 29%. That’s up from September, when independent women gave her just a 5-point lead, 40% to 35%.
Independent men still favor Trump 47% to 37% — numbers that are largely unchanged from September, when independent men supported him 46% to 33%.
Overall, Harris holds a 20-point lead with women, 56% to 36%, similar to where she was in September.
But Trump’s lead with men has shrunk from 27 points in September (59% to 32%) to 14 points today (52% to 38%).
Mya Williams, an 18-year-old college freshman and poll respondent, said she doesn’t identify with either the Democratic or Republican parties. But she’s excited to be part of the effort to elect the country’s first Black female president.
“I like what she stands for and that she’s a female and the opposite of what Trump stands for,” Williams said. “She’s something new.”
She said she likes Harris’ stance on abortion rights, and she dislikes changes Trump made to overtime rules while he was in office.
Harris holds a small lead with likely Iowa voters who are younger than 35, 46% to 44% over Trump.
Harris’ larger support among likely voters 65 and older, who prefer her 55% to 36%, could be a boon, because older Iowans tend to be more reliable voters and show up at disproportionately higher rates.
The poll shows 62% of Iowans younger than 35 are likely voters, down from 73% in September.
But 93% of seniors say they are likely voters — even higher than the 84% who said so in September.
“If you want a horse to ride on, you want seniors, because they vote,” Selzer said.
Donald Trump holds on to base voters: Evangelicals, rural Iowans, men
Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.
He carries Iowa men 52% to 38% and evangelicals 73% to 20%.
Joel Funk, a 26-year-old poll respondent and Garden Grove resident, said he’s excited to cast an early ballot for Trump. The registered Republican said the economy is the biggest issue facing the country right now.
“We’ve lived through four years of him (Trump) being president, and I would say they are four of the best years economically that I have lived through,” he said. “Then we’ve gotten to see four years of the opposition, and we’ve had a lot of inflation and a lot of illegal immigration — a lot of things I would say aren’t the best for America.”
Trump leads with those living in rural areas (55% to 35%) and those living in towns (49% to 40%). But Harris carries those in cities (61% to 33%) and suburbs (59% to 36%).
Among those without a college degree, Trump leads 51% to 39%. And Harris gets those with a college degree, 61% to 31%.
Funk, an automation engineer, dislikes that Harris was nominated without going through the usual primary process.
“They kind of put her in place of Joe Biden after the actual primary polls,” he said. “So, I don’t think she was actually chosen by the people. … And based off of interviews both of them have done, she said she would maintain the same style of policies (as Biden). Which I don’t think have been that great for us.”
Different issues drive Democrats, Republicans
The issues driving Trump supporters are very different than those driving Harris supporters, the Iowa Poll finds.
Trump voters say the issue of inflation and the economy is what they’ve been thinking about most in their decision to support him. Forty-nine percent of his supporters cite it as their most important issue.
Another 25% say immigration is driving their decision.
The top issue for Harris supporters is “the future of democracy,” with 51% citing it as their most important issue. Another 22% say it’s abortion.
“The voting agenda is different for each of those groups of supporters,” Selzer said.
Some former Donald Trump supporters move away from him in 2024
Harris holds on to the support of nearly all Democrats, with 97% saying they will support her and 0% saying they will support Trump.
But she also gets 5% of Republicans who say they will vote for her over Trump. Trump holds 89% of Republicans.
The poll shows a small universe of people who say they previously supported Trump and have now switched their vote to someone else.
Among those not supporting Trump, 16% say there was a time when they supported him, while 81% say they have never supported him. Another 3% are not sure.
Ralph Newbanks, a 63-year-old poll respondent from Solon, said he is a lifelong Republican who plans to vote for Harris this year.
“It’s not what I like about her, it’s what I dislike about Trump,” he said. “Since 2020 and the Capitol riots, I couldn’t vote for Trump if he paid me, not for love nor money.”
He thought about casting a ballot for a third-party candidate, but he didn’t want to lodge a protest vote. He wants to make sure Trump doesn’t return to the White House.
‘That Is Just Sad’: Stephen Colbert Spots Exact Moment Trump Rally Went Awry
The “Late Show” host peered into the “stomach-churning” event the former president held at Madison Square Garden.
Stephen Colbert slammed Donald Trump’s Sunday rally at Madison Square Garden in New York as a “stomach-churning six hours of hatred, racism and threats of totalitarian revenge.”
But he spotted one moment that went “a little awry.”
That came as 71-year-old pro wrestling icon Hulk Hogan tried to rip off his shirt, but the shirt wouldn’t cooperate.
“That is just sad, to see an old man like that,” Colbert said after showing the clip. “We’ve all had that moment when you have to look at your grandpa and say, ‘Peepaw, it’s just not safe anymore. We’re gonna have to take away the keys to your shirt.’”
See more in his Monday night monologue:
What happens next if Donald Trump loses the US election?
As Americans face one of their most consequential elections for years, a subtext is running through the conversations of many of those anxiously waiting for election day: could this country face upheaval or even violence in coming weeks?
The United States was once famous for its peaceful transfer of power. For such a large country, every four years outgoing presidents have stood outside the US Congress as their successor has sworn loyalty to the Constitution.
Sometimes the outgoing president has finished their maximum two terms, and sometimes they’ve been defeated, but it’s been a valued American tradition that the handover of power in what has been indisputably the most powerful nation on earth has happened smoothly and in public.
And then along came Donald Trump.
How is it that a man who has disparaged so many key constituencies — particularly women — still has the support of an estimated 75 million Americans? That’s the reality of the United States as it prepares for Tuesday’s election.
The trauma of the Capitol riots in 2021 remains seared into the memories of Americans. Many Trump supporters stormed the bastion of US democracy in scenes reminiscent of a banana republic.
On top of that, Trump himself has not dispelled that suggestion. In March he warned of a “bloodbath” if he did not win this election, although afterwards his advisers said he was referring to the fate of the US auto industry.
Washington fortified to prevent a 2020 repeat
US authorities are putting in place security measures around the country that have never been seen as necessary before. The New York Times reported that the Department of Homeland Security had advised hundreds of concerned communities on election safety. It reported that at one election centre in Pennsylvania there had been training in “de-escalation tactics”, mobile phones had been updated with panic-button software, bulletproof glass had been installed in the elections bureau office and bullet-resistant film had been fitted on windows.
Washington DC has been heavily fortified, making any storming of the Capitol almost impossible. But authorities are concerned about other government buildings and counting centres around the country.
Some senior diplomats in Washington think the likelihood of violence in coming weeks is low — they say the prosecution of many of the people involved in the Capitol storming on January 6, 2021, will prove a strong deterrent to others, although they don’t preclude the possibility of sporadic outbreaks of unrest.
Much of this anxiety is fuelled by the phenomenon of Trump — an extraordinary political specimen. Trump has reached the point where he can say anything and do almost anything and it will not erode his support from half of the American population.
This week he said if re-elected president he would “protect” women “whether they like it or not”. He also said that Liz Cheney, a former Republican senator and daughter of one of the Republican Party’s elder statesmen Dick Cheney, was a “war hawk” and should understand the experience of having “guns trained on her face”.
Americans were not shocked by this commentary on one of his staunchest critics. In fact, Trump seems to have crossed the threshold of shock.
With two assassination attempts against Donald Trump during the campaign, violence is already a part of this election’s story.
Today, the US is bitterly divided. Lilliana Mason, associate professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University, has studied the polarisation in today’s America. Her research found 40 per cent of registered voters look at the “other” side as “not humans”.
She found 50 per cent of people who identify with one side of politics are willing to say the other side is “evil” while up to 40 per cent of party loyalists are willing to de-humanise people in the other party.
The ground is being laid for court challenges
What is making many Americans nervous is that in recent days Trump has begun to build a case that this election has been rigged. He’s alleged that Pennsylvania is “cheating big” on votes in pre-polling.
Pennsylvania could prove to be the most decisive state. Trump’s early claim of electoral malfeasance has been rejected outright by election officials and most of the media but for Trump it works both ways — if he wins, it will be irrelevant, and if he loses he’s already put the idea into the minds of his supporters if he wants a big public reaction.
The ground is being laid for court challenges
What is making many Americans nervous is that in recent days Trump has begun to build a case that this election has been rigged. He’s alleged that Pennsylvania is “cheating big” on votes in pre-polling.
Pennsylvania could prove to be the most decisive state. Trump’s early claim of electoral malfeasance has been rejected outright by election officials and most of the media but for Trump it works both ways — if he wins, it will be irrelevant, and if he loses he’s already put the idea into the minds of his supporters if he wants a big public reaction.
There’s a reason Trump’s political brand endures. He resonates with a vast number of Americans who feel alienated from any economic success. This alienation is not new — but what’s different is that no politician before him has so successfully harvested this anger.
This in itself is a paradox. Trump’s life story could not be further from the lives of the economic underclass. His own life in Manhattan as a property developer, as evidenced by the glittering Trump Tower, is a world away from the working poor who deserted the Democrats and elected him president in 2016 over Hillary Clinton, seen by the working poor as privileged and elitist.
This is where Trump’s choice of vice-presidential running mate becomes crucial. While the left in the US has been appalled by the choice of a hardline conservative, JD Vance is from the very constituency which could deliver this election for Trump.
Vance writes in his book Hillbilly Elegy: “Working class whites are the most pessimistic group in America. More pessimistic than Latino immigrants, many of whom suffer unthinkable poverty. More pessimistic than black Americans, whose material prospects continue to lag behind those of whites. While reality permits some degree of cynicism, the fact that hillbillies like me are more down about the future than many other groups — some of whom are clearly more destitute than we are — suggests that something else is going on.”
Although Vance wrote this well before his vice-presidential candidacy, that “something else” is what’s at the heart of Trump’s support among half the country. “As the manufacturing centre of the industrial Midwest has hollowed out, the white working class has lost both its economic security and the stable home and family life that comes with it,” Vance wrote.
‘Just pathetic’: Trump tears into Harris for ‘cosplaying with elites’ on SNL as US VP faces backlash over ‘fake accent’
Following Kamala Harris appearance on SNL, Donald Trump campaign said that she has “nothing significant to offer” Americans in her presidential campaign.
Donald Trump blasted his Democratic rival Kamala Harris after she made a surprising appearance on Saturday Night Live just three days ahead of the US presidential election.
Her SNL appearance came after popular podcaster Joe Rogan informed that Harris campaign has made few demands to appear in an interview and hinted that the US Vice President has refused to come on his podcast over scheduling conflicts.
On Saturday, Harris’ aircraft made a sudden stop in New York City to make an unexpected appearance on the NBC sitcom show.
In a statement to Daily Mail, Trump’s Communications Director Steven Cheung accused the Democratic contender of “cosplaying” with her “elite friends.”
He went on to claim that she has “nothing significant to offer” Americans in her presidential campaign.
“Kamala Harris has nothing substantive to offer the American people, so that’s why she’s living out her warped fantasy cosplaying with her elitist friends on Saturday Night Leftists as her campaign spirals down the drain into obscurity,” Cheung said.
Continuing his tirade against Harris , he said that her “destructive policies” have caused unimaginable suffering and harm to all Americans over the past four years. “She broke it, and President Trump will fix it.”
Meanwhile, Harris received major backlash for employing her “fake accent.”
“Kamala Harris spent three hours rehearsing for this cringe fest on SNL. Complete with the fake black accent. This is a tough watch. Good Lord,” one X user wrote.
“Just hearing Kamala’s fake hood accent lowered my credit score by 50 points,” wrote another stated, “These fake accents would be bad enough, if she was even halfway decent at them, but this is just pathetic, you know it’s bad if I’m embarrassed for her.”
Harris, who is of Indian and Jamaican heritage, has been mocked for using a “blaccent” since she alters her speech and tone of voice according to the race, class, and other characteristics of her audience.
She was ridiculed online last week for preaching to a largely black crowd with a “fake accent”.
