Inside the Last-Ditch Hunt by Harris and Trump for Undecided Voters

Inside the Last-Ditch Hunt by Harris and Trump for Undecided Voters

Both campaigns are digging through troves of data to find these crucial Americans. They both think many are younger, Black or Latino. The Harris team is also eyeing white, college-educated women.

A picture from behind Kamala Harris as she speaks at an event in La Crosse, Wis., with the crowd behind her.

Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign has spent months collecting data on the media consumption habits of voters in battleground states. That research is now informing her media and travel schedule.

 

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump are carrying out a virtual house-to-house hunt for the final few voters who are still up for grabs, guided by months of painstaking research about these elusive Americans.

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Inside the Delaware headquarters of Ms. Harris’s campaign, analysts have spent 18 months curating a list of which television shows and podcasts voters consume in the battleground states. Her team has assigned every voter in these states a “contactability score” from 0 to 100 to determine just how hard that person will be to reach — and who is best to deliver her closing message.

The results are guiding Ms. Harris’s media and travel schedule, as well as campaign stops by brand-name supporters. For instance, the movie star Julia Roberts and the basketball great Magic Johnson earned high marks among certain voters, so they have been deployed to swing states.

At Mr. Trump’s headquarters, in South Florida, his team recently refreshed its model of the battleground electorate and found that just 5 percent of voters were still undecided, half as many as in August. The Trump team calls them the “target persuadables” — younger, more racially diverse people with lower incomes who tend to use streaming services and social media. Mr. Trump has made appearance after appearance on those platforms, including on podcasts aimed at young men.

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This furious search for a fickle sliver of the country has grown more urgent because the presidential contest is as close as any since the advent of modern polling, with the two candidates nearly deadlocked across the battleground states. The election could now ride on undecided Americans who have unplugged almost entirely from political news — making them tricky to find even for billion-dollar campaigns.

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Two people walking up to a door at a house in Kenosha, Wis., and preparing to ring the doorbell as they canvass for Donald Trump.
Volunteers knocking on doors for former President Donald J. Trump and other local candidates last month in Kenosha, Wis. His campaign found that just 5 percent of voters were still undecided, half as many as in August. Credit…Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times

“These people are not super political,” said James Blair, the political director of the Trump campaign, “and so we’re doing non-super-political media.”

In interviews, senior Harris and Trump advisers divulged some details of whom, exactly, they still view as up for grabs. Both see a group that is younger, with a disproportionate share of Black and Latino voters. The Harris campaign believes it can still win over some white college-educated voters, particularly women, who have historically voted Republican but are repelled by Mr. Trump.

An analysis of polling in the battleground states from The New York Times and Siena College found that a mere 3.7 percent of their voters, or about 1.2 million people, were still truly undecided.

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The Times analysis closely mirrored what the campaigns describe: a group heavy on younger voters, people of color and those without college degrees. Black voters make up about 21 percent of the undecideds, which helps explain Ms. Harris’s explicit push for them.

 

Many undecided Americans are unsure if voting is even worth their time.

“I’m not seeking out a ballot to vote because I don’t care,” said Kyler Irvins, 22, a telehealth specialist from San Tan Valley, Ariz., in the Phoenix area, who has never voted and said he registered only at his mother’s insistence.

He did not watch the debates, does not follow news coverage and does not believe his vote will make a difference. But he did say he remembered the pride he felt when, as a Black elementary school student, he watched Barack Obama win the 2008 election.

Yet the campaigns and their allies are spending hundreds of millions of dollars in these final weeks to persuade people like Mr. Irvins to vote — and to choose their side.

“If the mail-in ballot comes, I’ll send it in for Kamala,” Mr. Irvins said. “If it comes to my front door.”

Harris Takes the Lead in Key States - The New York Times

The Harris campaign considers its audience of winnable swing voters to be up to 10 percent of voters in battleground states, slightly larger than what the Trump operation sees for itself or the Times polling indicates.

That is because the campaign includes a large number of Republican women who it believes dislike Mr. Trump, particularly on abortion policy, but want to hear Ms. Harris’s message on the economy and the border before they are persuaded.

This strategic thinking has informed the vice president’s campaign speeches.

On Thursday in Wisconsin, she made a direct call to Republicans, particularly those put off by Mr. Trump. She reminded the audience that she had the backing of Liz Cheney, the conservative former congresswoman from Wyoming, whom Ms. Harris is campaigning with in three states on Monday. Last week, Ms. Harris appeared in Pennsylvania with dozens of Republicans.

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A person holding a clipboard with fliers for Kamala Harris.
The Harris campaign considers its audience of winnable swing voters to be up to 10 percent of voters in battleground states. Credit…Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

“I’m campaigning for every vote because I want and intend to be a president for all Americans,” she said. “No matter their political party, where they live or where they get their news.”

Ms. Harris’s recent interview on Fox News came during her most aggressive media tour as the Democratic nominee — just as early voting was beginning in many states.

In one week, she appeared for interviews on “60 Minutes,” “The View,” Stephen Colbert’s late-night show, the “Call Her Daddy” podcast and Howard Stern’s radio show. It was a wide-ranging media blitz designed to break through to voters across her 0 to 100 “contactability” scale, spurred in part by Mr. Trump’s refusal to participate in a second debate.

 

The Harris campaign methodically measured who saw her on each program. Internal surveys showed that two-thirds of undecided voters in the battleground states had consumed at least some of her interviews during the week. But in a sign of the fragmented media environment, and underscoring the challenge, no single program reached more than one in three of those undecided voters.

“They are very hard to reach — they are not watching traditional news platforms or other programming with large, mainstream audiences,” said Meg Schwenzfeier, the chief analytics officer for the Harris campaign. “To talk to them, we have to take a layered approach — we have to be on TV, nontraditional platforms, door-knocking, billboards, digital ads, mail — everything really.”

The campaign’s data drove its decision to invest in advertising time during Fox News’s daytime programming, when more women are watching than in the evening, when opinion hosts draw an audience that skews male and less persuadable. It also factored into Ms. Harris’s interview on Fox News.

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The Harris campaign also used its polls to figure out which moments had helped change minds.

One example came during Ms. Harris’s appearances on “The View” and with Mr. Stern, where she announced a plan to extend Medicare coverage for at-home care for seniors.

Of the more than 100 clips during her media blitz that were tested for their effectiveness at increasing her support, that proposal ranked at the top, a campaign official said.

The Trump campaign’s research found that up-for-grabs voters were about six times as likely as other battleground-state voters to be motivated by their views of Israel’s war in Gaza. The campaign also found that undecided voters were less likely to be white than those in the battlegrounds overall and more likely to be Black. About 25 percent of undecided voters are Black, according to the Trump team.

“The fact that they don’t have younger Black men locked in with less than three weeks to Election Day is a big problem for them,” Mr. Blair, the Trump campaign’s political director, said of Ms. Harris and Democrats. “Historically, that would be part of their base.”

The Trump team’s research shows that undecided voters are particularly focused on the economy, and are often financially struggling. They are more likely to work two jobs, and on average they earn $15,000 less per household than the battleground voters who have made up their minds.

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Donald Trump speaking into a microphone and gesturing with his right hand at a town-hall event.
The Trump campaign’s research found that up-for-grabs voters were about six times as likely as other battleground-state voters to be motivated by their views of Israel’s war in Gaza. Credit…Michelle Gustafson for The New York Times

About a quarter of the undecided voters in the Trump team’s research describe themselves as nonideological, and the campaign has for months studied what issues move them the most.

By late summer, voters targeted by the Trump campaign said they were most concerned about immigration and inflation, particularly the prices of groceries and housing. Not surprisingly, two of Ms. Harris’s first economic plans sought to directly address price-gouging on groceries and housing costs.

Mr. Trump’s team typically tends to project bravado, and his aides believe that voters who made their decision in the last two months have tilted in his favor.

In the campaign’s refreshed model, the Trump campaign moved 1.5 million voters out of the persuadable category and into its camp. It shifted just 924,000 to Ms. Harris’s side.

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Jim Messina, who was the campaign manager for Mr. Obama’s 2012 re-election bid and is now the chairman of a Democratic super PAC, said he viewed the remaining undecided voters as fitting into two broad groups: young people and people of color in one, and suburban women in the other.

“She now leads the suburbs, and this is where I think she has room to grow and he doesn’t, because these are the voters we’re talking about,” Mr. Messina said.

Harris allies think they can win over voters like Angela Beers, 44, a real estate agent from Brookhaven, Pa., who said she would not vote for Mr. Trump but remained unsold on Ms. Harris.

Ms. Beers was a fan of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. when he was running as an independent and said she might write him in as a protest.

Ms. Beers said she was aware of some of Ms. Harris’s policies to help first-time home buyers, but thought they would serve only to make housing more expensive and drive inflation.

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“This whole concept of, ‘give everybody money, let’s help people with down payments, let’s get the interest rates lower’ — all it does it make prices go higher,” Ms. Beers said. “I don’t see either of the candidates talking about the supply issue.”

Whether Ms. Harris can break through to voters like Ms. Beers in the next two weeks will determine whether she can carry the key battleground states.

“The long and short of it is, every community out there is wanting more information,” said Senator Laphonza Butler of California, a close Harris ally. “There are pockets that exist in every community that want more information and want to know how the campaign and this election is going to impact their everyday life.”

 

Ms. Harris said Mr. Trump “is not fit to be president”

US Vice President Kamala Harris believes that former President Donald Trump’s lack of standards will be a factor that makes voters not vote for him.
Inside the Last-Ditch Hunt by Harris and Trump for Undecided Voters
US Vice President Kamala Harris (Photo: NYT).

 

“He doesn’t deserve it. And that’s why he’s going to lose,” US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris said of her opponent, former President Donald Trump, in an interview with NBC News. MSNBC July 20th.

Ms. Harris criticized Mr. Trump for making vulgar statements, insulting the US presidency and reducing Washington’s reputation in the international arena.

“What you see in my opponent, a former president of the United States, is really demeaning to this office,” Ms. Harris said.

Earlier, speaking at a campaign event in the battleground state of Pennsylvania on October 19, Mr. Trump called Ms. Harris “a terrible vice president,” to cheers from his supporters.

Vice President Harris believes that former President Trump should not be elected to lead the United States again.

“Donald Trump should never again stand behind the seal of the presidency of the United States. He does not deserve that right,” Ms. Harris stressed.

Will Trump and Harris meet for a second presidential debate?

According to Ms. Harris, Mr. Trump’s comments have undermined America’s power when it comes to issues like democracy and the rule of law.

With just over two weeks to go until the November 5 US presidential election, polls show Ms Harris and Mr Trump in a tight race for the presidency, including in key battleground states that will decide the election outcome.

 

Inside a Harris Ad in Which Ex-Trump Aides Blast Him as Unfit for Office

 

An attack ad from Kamala Harris’s campaign uses denunciations of Donald Trump by his own former top security lieutenants to portray him as too risky to restore to power.

 

 

Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign has spent more than $2.6 million running this 60-second ad across the country since Oct. 3, including six-figure buys in six of the seven battleground states, according to AdImpact.

Here’s a look at the ad, its accuracy and its major takeaway.

The ad opens with ominous music and a shaky-camera-style montage of scenes from former President Donald J. Trump’s past. He is seen standing outside the New York City courtroom where this year he was found to have committed civil fraud.

A timeline scrolls back to images of Mr. Trump as a candidate for president in 2016, and then a photo shows him in the Situation Room in 2019 — on the day that U.S. soldiers raided an ISIS leader’s compound in Syria — flanked by three top officials at the time: Vice President Mike Pence, Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Over that image, a white-lettered warning materializes: “Trump is not fit to be president again.”

The ad goes on to toggle between photos of Mr. Trump alongside those men, as well as his former national security adviser, John R. Bolton, while they served together, and clips of the four former officials in recent television interviews delivering scathing criticism of Mr. Trump and dire warnings about the risks if he is elected to another term.

Subtitles drive those messages home. “I CANNOT in good conscience ENDORSE DONALD TRUMP this year,” Mr. Pence is seen saying on the CBS show “Face the Nation.” “The only thing he cares about IS DONALD TRUMP,” Mr. Bolton says on CNN.

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“In 2016, Donald Trump said he would choose only the best people to work in his White House. Now, those people have a warning for America: Trump is not fit to be president again. Here’s his vice president.”

“Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States.”

pence

“I cannot in good conscience endorse Donald Trump this year.”

Narrator

“His defense secretary.”

Jake Tapper

“Do you think Trump can be trusted with the nation’s secrets ever again?”

ESPER

“No. I mean, it’s just irresponsible action that places our service members at risk, places our nation’s security at risk.”

Narrator

“His national security adviser.”

Bolton

“Donald Trump will cause a lot of damage.”

Bolton

“The only thing he cares about is Donald Trump.”

Narrator

“And the nation’s former highest-ranking military officer.”

Milley

“We don’t take an oath to a king, or a queen, or a tyrant, or a dictator. And we don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator.”

Narrator

“Take it from the people who knew him best: Donald Trump is too big a risk for America.”

The ad largely consists of remarks made on television. It makes no verifiable claims.

The ad delivers one of the strongest attacks that Ms. Harris has leveled so far by using the words of the men on whom Mr. Trump relied to defend the nation to disqualify him from serving another term as commander in chief.

Its jittery aesthetic appears designed to underscore Ms. Harris’s argument that a second Trump term would be dark, chaotic and unsafe. It seeks to reach voters who would be unlikely to accept Ms. Harris’s word about Mr. Trump’s fitness for office but might heed the warnings of his own former national security aides.

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