If the election were held today, 65% of younger adults in critical swing states say they would support Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, according to an exclusive U.S. News poll.
Younger people in critical swing states are more likely to support the Democratic presidential nominee now that Vice President Kamala Harris has taken President Joe Biden’s place in the race, according to an exclusive U.S. News poll.
The poll found a whopping 82% of younger adults in swing states strongly agree or agree that Biden made the right choice in bowing out of the race. If the election were held today, 65% say they would support Harris compared to 35% who say they would support Trump. When Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, just 59% of young people said they would back him compared to 41% who said they would back Trump just weeks ago.
The striking disparity is reflected in a U.S. News poll conducted by Generation Lab, which surveyed roughly 2,000 young adults ages 18 to 34 in key battleground states beginning Aug. 25, on the heels of the Democratic National Convention, through Sept. 3. It’s the second in a series of polls focusing on this demographic, and captures the changes in sentiment over a chaotic six weeks, which saw Biden drop out of the race and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his campaign and throw his support behind Trump.
“Harris’ youth lead was already stronger than Biden’s when he dropped out, but now, she’s flirting with Obama-level youth vote numbers,” says Cyrus Beschloss, CEO of Generation Lab, a data intelligence company that studies younger voters. “The question will be how much she can defy electoral gravity, and get those supporters to actually show up.”
Speaking to that very question, 43% of young people “strongly agree” or “agree” that they are more likely to vote in the election now that Harris is the Democratic candidate. Additionally, when asked about the candidate they currently support, 70% say they’re either “very committed” or “pretty committed” – a near-20 percentage point swing from how they answered the question in June.
Meanwhile, 72% of registered Democrats say they support Harris more than they supported Biden – namely because they want a younger candidate – and among her supporters, 48% say they are more likely to vote because she has a better shot at beating Trump than Biden did.
Other changes related to enthusiasm since Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee include:
- A 9 percentage-point increase in young people who have thought “quite a lot” about the election.
- A 6 percentage-point increase in how many young people say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote.
- A 5 percentage-point drop in how many young people say they will “definitely not” vote
While poll results indicate increased enthusiasm for Harris, and for election participation in general since Harris joined the race, takeaways summarize only the youth vote in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, along with the traditional presidential bellwether state of Ohio.
Of all survey respondents, 30% heavily leaned Democratic, compared to just 9% who were registered as Republican and 11% who were independent, with the rest reporting they were not registered with any party. National polling indicates a tighter race, especially because older voters do not lean as Democratic as young voters.
Historically, running mates haven’t been an X factor in presidential elections. Indeed, roughly half of all respondents say Harris’ and Trump’s vice presidential picks, respectively, do not affect their likelihood of voting for either candidate.
But enthusiasm among Democrats seems to be spilling over into that field, with 39% saying they are much more likely or somewhat more likely to vote for Harris since her selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
Conversely, Trump’s pick, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, appears to be hurting more than helping: 30% say they are much less or somewhat less likely to vote for Trump now compared to 15% who say they are much more or somewhat more likely to vote for him. Among those who say they are much less or somewhat less likely to vote for Trump because of Vance, 28% say it’s because of the senator’s conservative politics and 18% say it’s because they feel like he doesn’t understand or represent them.
Trump has been ducking questions about buyer’s remorse when it comes to Vance, the once Never Trumper who then rode his coattails into the Senate in 2022, part of the widely anticipated Republican takeover that never came to be.
Meanwhile, the Democratic National Convention, which marked the first official introduction to Harris and Walz for many Americans, seems to have unleashed a tsunami of enthusiasm that’s reflected in unprecedented fundraising figures and a surge in voter registrations
Fundraising figures for August are set to publish later this week, but there’s reason to believe Harris will have far outpaced Trump. In July, Harris raked in $204 million compared to Trump’s $48 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings. And according to the Harris-Walz campaign, they’ve raised $540 million in the first six weeks since Biden stepped aside.
Voter registration has also skyrocketed since Harris became the nominee. In Georgia alone, a crucial swing state, registration increased 117% among Hispanic voters in the four weeks after Biden stepped down compared to the same time period in 2020. Registrations also spiked among voters under 30 by 76% and among Black women by 75%.
Tom Bonier, a Democratic political strategist, calls it “The Harris Effect.” According to his analysis of 13 states that have updated voter files since July 21, registrations have surged 176% among young Black women and 150% among young Hispanic women compared to the same time period in 2020.
“We are seeing incredible surges in voter registration relative to the same time period in 2020, driven by women, voters of color, and young voters,” he wrote on X. “These changes are, unsurprisingly, substantially to the benefit of Democrats.”