Harris Ignites Enthusiasm Among Younger Adults in Critical Swing States

Harris Ignites Enthusiasm Among Younger Adults in Critical Swing States

If the election were held today, 65% of younger adults in critical swing states say they would support Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, according to an exclusive U.S. News poll.

 

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 02: Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at IBEW Local Union #5 on September 02, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. President Joe Biden joined Vice President Harris for her second Labor Day event, for the first time on the campaign trail since he departed the Democratic ticket and Harris was confirmed as the Democratic Party's nominee for the 2024 presidential election against Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump. The event was attended by members of the IBEW,United Steelworkers, AFSCME, and other unions. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

 

Younger people in critical swing states are more likely to support the Democratic presidential nominee now that Vice President Kamala Harris has taken President Joe Biden’s place in the race, according to an exclusive U.S. News poll.

The poll found a whopping 82% of younger adults in swing states strongly agree or agree that Biden made the right choice in bowing out of the race. If the election were held today, 65% say they would support Harris compared to 35% who say they would support Trump. When Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, just 59% of young people said they would back him compared to 41% who said they would back Trump just weeks ago.

The striking disparity is reflected in a U.S. News poll conducted by Generation Lab, which surveyed roughly 2,000 young adults ages 18 to 34 in key battleground states beginning Aug. 25, on the heels of the Democratic National Convention, through Sept. 3. It’s the second in a series of polls focusing on this demographic, and captures the changes in sentiment over a chaotic six weeks, which saw Biden drop out of the race and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his campaign and throw his support behind Trump.

“Harris’ youth lead was already stronger than Biden’s when he dropped out, but now, she’s flirting with Obama-level youth vote numbers,” says Cyrus Beschloss, CEO of Generation Lab, a data intelligence company that studies younger voters. “The question will be how much she can defy electoral gravity, and get those supporters to actually show up.”

 

 

Speaking to that very question, 43% of young people “strongly agree” or “agree” that they are more likely to vote in the election now that Harris is the Democratic candidate. Additionally, when asked about the candidate they currently support, 70% say they’re either “very committed” or “pretty committed” – a near-20 percentage point swing from how they answered the question in June.

Meanwhile, 72% of registered Democrats say they support Harris more than they supported Biden – namely because they want a younger candidate – and among her supporters, 48% say they are more likely to vote because she has a better shot at beating Trump than Biden did.

Other changes related to enthusiasm since Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee include:

  • A 9 percentage-point increase in young people who have thought “quite a lot” about the election.
  • A 6 percentage-point increase in how many young people say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote.
  • A 5 percentage-point drop in how many young people say they will “definitely not” vote

While poll results indicate increased enthusiasm for Harris, and for election participation in general since Harris joined the race, takeaways summarize only the youth vote in the swing states of ArizonaGeorgiaMichiganNevadaPennsylvania and Wisconsin, along with the traditional presidential bellwether state of Ohio.

Of all survey respondents, 30% heavily leaned Democratic, compared to just 9% who were registered as Republican and 11% who were independent, with the rest reporting they were not registered with any party. National polling indicates a tighter race, especially because older voters do not lean as Democratic as young voters.

Historically, running mates haven’t been an X factor in presidential elections. Indeed, roughly half of all respondents say Harris’ and Trump’s vice presidential picks, respectively, do not affect their likelihood of voting for either candidate.

But enthusiasm among Democrats seems to be spilling over into that field, with 39% saying they are much more likely or somewhat more likely to vote for Harris since her selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

 

 

Conversely, Trump’s pick, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, appears to be hurting more than helping: 30% say they are much less or somewhat less likely to vote for Trump now compared to 15% who say they are much more or somewhat more likely to vote for him. Among those who say they are much less or somewhat less likely to vote for Trump because of Vance, 28% say it’s because of the senator’s conservative politics and 18% say it’s because they feel like he doesn’t understand or represent them.

Trump has been ducking questions about buyer’s remorse when it comes to Vance, the once Never Trumper who then rode his coattails into the Senate in 2022, part of the widely anticipated Republican takeover that never came to be.

Meanwhile, the Democratic National Convention, which marked the first official introduction to Harris and Walz for many Americans, seems to have unleashed a tsunami of enthusiasm that’s reflected in unprecedented fundraising figures and a surge in voter registrations

Fundraising figures for August are set to publish later this week, but there’s reason to believe Harris will have far outpaced Trump. In July, Harris raked in $204 million compared to Trump’s $48 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings. And according to the Harris-Walz campaign, they’ve raised $540 million in the first six weeks since Biden stepped aside.

Voter registration has also skyrocketed since Harris became the nominee. In Georgia alone, a crucial swing state, registration increased 117% among Hispanic voters in the four weeks after Biden stepped down compared to the same time period in 2020. Registrations also spiked among voters under 30 by 76% and among Black women by 75%.

Tom Bonier, a Democratic political strategist, calls it “The Harris Effect.” According to his analysis of 13 states that have updated voter files since July 21, registrations have surged 176% among young Black women and 150% among young Hispanic women compared to the same time period in 2020.

“We are seeing incredible surges in voter registration relative to the same time period in 2020, driven by women, voters of color, and young voters,” he wrote on X. “These changes are, unsurprisingly, substantially to the benefit of Democrats.”

UNITED STATES - AUGUST 22: Vice President Kamala Harris, Democratic presidential nominee, celebrates with family members on the final night of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center in Chicago, Ill., on Thursday, August 22, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

 

 

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 22: Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to speak on stage during the final day of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center on August 22, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. Delegates, politicians, and Democratic Party supporters are gathering in Chicago, as current Vice President Kamala Harris is named her party's presidential nominee. The DNC takes place from August 19-22. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

 

TOPSHOT - Democratic presidential candidate and US Vice President Kamala Harris reacts as she holds a photographer's camera while flying on Marine Two, on her way to O'Hare International Airport, Chicago, Illinois, on August 20, 2024. Harris is traveling to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to speak at a campaign event. (Photo by Kevin Lamarque / POOL / AFP) (Photo by KEVIN LAMARQUE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

 

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally, Saturday, Aug. 10, 2024, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)

 

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - AUGUST 6: Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to board her plane at Philadelphia International Airport on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to travel back to Washington after a campaign event at Girard College. Harris ended weeks of speculation about who her running mate would be, selecting the 60 year old midwestern Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over other candidates. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

 

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania - August 6: Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and Democratic vice presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz walk on stage together during a campaign event at Temple University's Liacouras Center in Philadelphia, Pa., on Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2024. Harris and Walz appeared for the first time together since announcing him as her running mate. (Photo by Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

 

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 25: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu look on before the start of a meeting in the Vice President's ceremonial office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on July 25, 2024 in Washington, DC. Netanyahu’s visit occurs as the Israel-Hamas war reaches nearly ten months. In addition to meeting with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, Netanyahu also met with U.S. President Joe BIden and families of American Hostages held by Hamas. (Photo by Kenny Holston-Pool/Getty Images)

 

 

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 19: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris orders ice cream with her nieces from Tyra Banks at the opening of Banks' new pop-up ice cream shop, Smize & Dream on July 19, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Erin Schaff - Pool/Getty Images)

 

WASHINGTON - JULY 4: Vice President Kamala Harris takes selfies with audience members during an Independence Day celebration at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Thursday, July 4, 2024. (Photo by Tom Brenner for The Washington Post via Getty Images)

 

US Vice President Kamala Harris greets guests at a reception celebrating Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Heritage Month in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, DC on May 13, 2024. (Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP) (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)

 

US Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to speak about healthcare during an event at the John Chavis recreation center on March 26, 2024 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

 

ST. PAUL, MN. - MARCH 2024: Vice President Kamala Harris, surrounded by politicians(behind her on her right) including St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter, U.S. Representative Betty McCollum, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, speaks to the media after touring Planned Parenthood, Thursday, March 14, 2024, in St. Paul, Minn. Behind Vice President Harris on her left in a white coat is Planned Parenthood North Central States Chief Medical Officer Sarah Traxler. (Photo by Glen Stubbe/Star Tribune via Getty Images)

 

 

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