An analysis of AP-NORC polling found that approval among independents without a college education dropped sharply during Trump’s second term—falling from around half before taking office to about one-quarter by early 2026.

That shift suggests the erosion is not confined to one dataset, but part of a wider pattern affecting a group that was once central to Trump’s appeal.

Why This Could Matter for 2026

The electoral significance of less-educated voters cannot be overstated.

They make up a substantial share of the electorate and are particularly influential in battleground regions such as the Midwest and parts of the South. Even modest shifts in support can translate into large changes in electoral outcomes.

Midterm elections amplify these effects. Turnout is typically lower and more variable, meaning shifts in enthusiasm among core groups can have an outsized impact.

Trump ‘Deeply Saddened’ by U.S. Military Casualties in the Middle East

U.S. President Donald Trump said on July 19 that he was “deeply saddened” by the casualties suffered by American troops in the conflict with Iran, as the death toll among service members rose to 17.

“We are deeply saddened, but you know, those great people, those great patriots… are fighting so that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons,” the U.S. President told reporters upon his return to Washington after attending the World Cup final.

One American soldier was killed in northern Iraq on July 18, while two others succumbed to injuries from Iranian missile attacks in Jordan a day earlier, according to a confirmation by the U.S. Military’s Central Command (CENTCOM).

Trump also praised American military prowess, shortly after CENTCOM announced a ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iran.

“Iran has taken a very, very heavy hit. They have lost almost everything militarily. They have very little left,” the U.S. President said.

The current flare-up in conflict is also posing widespread risks to American citizens in the Middle East. The U.S. Embassy in Bahrain has just warned citizens currently in the Gulf nation to exercise caution, noting that Iran could target “unspecified locations” in central Manama, Bahrain’s capital.

“We urge all Americans to remain vigilant, follow local authority instructions, and review the latest guidance from the U.S. Embassy,” the embassy in Bahrain stated in a post on X, without providing further details.

Earlier on July 18, the U.S. Department of State issued a global travel advisory for its citizens, citing escalating tensions in the Middle East and the potential for further security risks.

Trump administration launches largest-ever effort to denaturalize U.S. citizens accused of fraud or other crimes

The Trump administration on Monday announced it is seeking to revoke the citizenship of 17 U.S. citizens accused of immigration fraud, expanding its unprecedented denaturalization campaign.

CBS News exclusively reported about the plans before they were unveiled by the Justice Department.

Officials said the move represents the largest-ever effort by the U.S. government to use its denaturalization powers, which were rarely invoked before President Trump returned to the White House last year with promises to launch a historic deportation blitz. Between 1990 and 2017, the Justice Department filed an average of just 11 legal complaints per year seeking to denaturalize American citizens, historical figures indicate.

Federal law has long allowed the government to try to denaturalize foreign-born U.S. citizens who officials believe committed fraud to obtain their citizenship, such as by concealing information, like criminal conduct, on their immigration applications. But the process has been historically lengthy, complex and seldom exercised, requiring officials to persuade judges to strip naturalized citizens of their citizenship in civil or criminal proceedings in federal court.

The Trump administration has sought to vastly escalate denaturalization efforts as part of its larger crackdown on illegal and legal immigration. In 2025, the Justice Department broadened the categories of naturalized citizens who should be prioritized for denaturalization. Last month, officials announced a dozen denaturalization cases, at the time the largest such effort in years.

Some of the 17 citizens targeted in the latest denaturalization campaign were convicted of violent or serious crimes, including sex offenses against children. Others were convicted of fraud crimes or accused of committing immigration fraud.

In federal court complaints filed across the country in recent days, Justice Department officials argued that the individuals concealed their criminal activity when they applied for U.S. citizenship or were otherwise ineligible to be naturalized, including because they lacked a “good moral character,” one of the requirements in the naturalization process.

Those targeted in the latest round of denaturalization cases include a Haitian immigrant who allegedly sexually abused his daughter; a man from the former Yugoslavia convicted of sexually abusing a child under the age of 15; an immigrant from Mexico convicted of receiving sexually explicit images of minors; a former Catholic priest born in Colombia accused of child sex abuse; and a Filipino-born man who pleaded guilty to a child sex crime.

The group also includes an Indian immigrant accused of filing fraudulent H-1B visa petitions; the daughter of a Colombian drug trafficker accused of money laundering; a man born in Jamaica convicted of wire fraud; and a Cuban-born woman accused of defrauding a tribal casino. Other naturalized citizens were accused of using false identities.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said the Justice Department would have “zero tolerance” for abuse of the naturalization process.

“Criminal aliens are lying about their past crimes, including drug dealers, sexual predators, and fraudsters,” Blanche said.

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said the Trump administration would “continue to use every lawful avenue to denaturalize and remove aliens.”

“American citizenship is a privilege, and it must be earned honestly. If you come here, break our laws, and lie in your immigration proceedings, you forfeit that privilege,” Mullin said.

The denaturalization process allows the targeted citizens to challenge the government’s filings to try to retain their citizenship. If U.S. citizens are denaturalized, they return to their prior immigration status, typically as permanent U.S. residents, and lose all the legal benefits of American citizenship, including protection from deportation.