In the run-up to the November election, a healthy economy is likely to cause a turnaround in US opinion, writes columnist Arnaud Leparmentier.

epublicans thought they would win a by-election in New York State by nominating a former American-Israeli Democrat from Ethiopia. Taking into account the influx of migrants to New York and Democratic divisions between the Jewish electorate and pro-Palestinian progressives – in the end, the choice of candidate didn’t help. On Tuesday, February 13, the Republicans lost. The Democrats have won election after election, especially since the Supreme Court overturned the federal right to abortion. It’s a warning to those who rejoice at Donald Trump’s announced comeback, that nothing is certain.

Of course, the expected duel will take place. Short of a miracle, no one believes that the former Republican president will be barred by the courts. Trials have no bearing on his popularity and seem at times derisory, like the one expected in New York over the hush-purchase of an escort girl with campaign funds. Barring a major health accident, the oldest sitting president of the United States, Joe Biden, an octogenarian with slurred speech, will be the Democratic candidate, along with his unpopular Vice President Kamala Harris, whom he did not want to replace so as not to offend women and the Black community.

And yet, what a record, especially if viewed from the left! Full employment, growth, innovation and industrial reinvigoration. Inflation is under control, purchasing power is on the rise again, and the country enjoys abundant energy resources. “It’s the economy, stupid,” said advisor James Carville to Democratic candidate Bill Clinton in 1992, as he set out to defeat patrician George Bush after the end of the Cold War and victory in the first Iraq war, but amid an economic recession.

Surviving a crisis

Many analysts explain that the standard recipe for success no longer works in a world ultra-polarized on “values.” In reality, it has always worked, especially when households feel economic woes tangibly (unemployment, inflation and gas prices). This is how Gerald Ford (1976), Jimmy Carter (1980) and George Bush (1992) were defeated in times of recession or stagflation.

Trump too. The Republican certainly had a very prosperous start to his term, but by the time of the November 2020 election, Covid-19 had put millions out of work, while no vaccine existed. Let’s dare to wager that, had Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines been announced two weeks earlier, just before the election, the outcome might have been different.

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Who’s Running for President in 2024?

Feb 20 (Reuters) – Republican former President Donald Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley are competing to be their party’s presidential nominee for the 2024 general election, while President Joe Biden is effectively the Democratic Party’s nominee. Several third-party hopefuls are also running.

Here is a list of the candidates.

DONALD TRUMP

Trump has leveraged his civil cases and indictments in four criminal cases – unprecedented for a former American president – to boost his popularity among Republicans and raise funds, helping to make him the Republican frontrunner with 64%, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. He scored victories in the early nominating contests of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, and is pushing to replace Republican National Committee leadership with his own top allies ahead of the party’s July nominating convention.

She has suggested she will stay in the race past the Feb. 24 primary in her home state, where opinion polls show she trails Trump, and her campaign has blasted Trump’s proposed RNC changes, saying the political party should be overhauled and its finances audited.

JOE BIDEN

Biden, 81, already the oldest U.S. president ever, will have to convince voters he has the stamina for another four years in office, amid poor approval ratings and a special counsel report suggesting he suffered memory lapses. Biden has blasted the report, and his allies say he believes he is the only Democratic candidate who can defeat Trump and protect democracy. The most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll put Biden at 34%, while Trump garnered 37% — close to the 2.9 percentage-point margin of error.

In announcing his candidacy, Biden declared he needed to defend American liberties and pointed to the deadly Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters. Vice President Kamala Harris is again his running mate.

The economy will also factor in his reelection campaign. While the U.S. escaped an anticipated recession and is growing faster than economists expected, inflation hit 40-year highs in 2022 and the cost of essentials is weighing on voters. Biden pushed through massive economic stimulus and infrastructure spending packages to boost U.S. industrial output, but he has received little recognition from voters for the latter.

Biden has led the response of Western governments to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, persuading allies to sanction Russia and support Kyiv, and he has been supportive of Israel in its conflict with Hamas militants in Gaza while pushing for more humanitarian aid. However, he has faced sharp criticism from some fellow Democrats for not backing a ceasefire in the Palestinian territory, where Gaza health officials say more than 28,400 people have been killed, thousands of buildings have been damaged or destroyed, and residents have insufficient food, water and medical supplies.

Biden’s handling of immigration policy has also been criticized by Republicans and Democrats as migrant crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border hit record highs during his administration.

In the Democratic Party’s presidential nominating contests, Biden has easily won in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

DEAN PHILLIPS

Dean Phillips, a little-known U.S. congressman from Minnesota, announced in October he would mount a long-shot challenge to Biden because he does not believe the president can win another term.

The 55-year-old millionaire businessman and gelato company co-founder announced his bid in a one-minute video posted online, saying: “We’ve got some challenges. … We’re going to repair this economy, and we are going to repair America.”

Phillips failed to win any delegates in South Carolina and took second place in New Hampshire. He did not appear on the Nevada ballot.

INDEPENDENTS

ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR

An anti-vaccine activist, Kennedy, 70, is running as an independent after initially challenging Biden for the Democratic nomination, but he is far behind in polling.

Some recent Reuters/Ipsos polls showed Kennedy could harm Biden more than Trump in the presidential election, where third-party candidates have affected the outcome of U.S. elections even without winning. Trump’s six-percentage point lead over Biden in Reuters/Ipsos polling held even when respondents had the option of voting for third-party candidates, including Kennedy, whose support stood at 8%.

Kennedy is the son of U.S. Senator Robert F. Kennedy, who was assassinated in 1968 during his own presidential bid. A surprise Super Bowl ad heavily featuring his connection to his uncle, former President John F. Kennedy, angered his family members and prompted him to apologize.

He was banned from Instagram for spreading misinformation about vaccines and the COVID-19 pandemic but was later reinstated. He also lost a legal bid to force YouTube owner Google to reinstate videos of him questioning the safety of COVID vaccines.

CORNEL WEST

The political activist, philosopher and academic said in June he would launch a third-party bid for president that is likely to appeal to progressive, Democratic-leaning voters.

West, 70, initially ran as a Green Party candidate, but in October he said people “want good policies over partisan politics” and announced his bid as an independent. He has promised to end poverty and guarantee housing.

JILL STEIN

Jill Stein, a physician, re-upped her 2016 Green Party bid on Nov. 9, accusing Democrats of betraying their promises “for working people, youth and the climate again and again – while Republicans don’t even make such promises in the first place.”

Stein, 73, raised millions of dollars for recounts after Trump’s surprise 2016 victory. Her allegations yielded only one electoral review in Wisconsin, which showed Trump had won.

Reporting by Costas Pitas and Susan Heavey; Editing by Jonathan Oatis, Lisa Shumaker and Daniel Wallis