Job market: Both Biden and Trump oversaw strong labor markets. Since Biden took office, overall employment is up 11%, average pay is up 17% and unemployment is down from 6.7% to 4.3%. It’s particularly a sign of strength that job growth and sub-4% unemployment have coincided with interest rate increases and a subsiding in inflation, both of which typically hurt the labor market. Perhaps Trump’s most impressive labor market feats were unemployment declining from 4.7% to as low as 3.5% in late 2019 and early 2020, which tied its lowest level since 1969 and wages growing by an inflation-beating 15% over his four-year term.

The COVID jobs asterisk: Much of the Biden labor market gains are part of the post-pandemic recovery, as unemployment was just 3.5% in Feb. 2020 and the number of employed Americans is up only 4%. Biden has largely focused on the Covid-skewed data points, and Trump’s labor market performance depends strictly on the cutoff date, as the COVID-19 disruption undid much of the nominal progress, sending unemployment briefly to an all-time high of 14.9% in April 2020 and causing the overall workforce to actually shrink from Dec. 2016 to Dec. 2020.

Consumer health: Consumer sentiment was lower last month than it ever was under Trump, according to the University of Michigan’s widely tracked survey as Americans continue to feel the aftershocks of inflation despite strong headline economic growth numbers and a record stock market. April’s 3.6% personal savings rate, which measures the percentage of Americans’ income left over after expenses and taxes, was less than half of April 2019’s 7.7%.

Gas prices: The average cost of a gallon of gasoline dipped from $2.37 to $2.28 from Dec. 2016 to 2020, rising to $3.41 by last week, according to the Energy Information Administration—but gas prices rose to an all-time high of over $5 per gallon in 2022 shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused energy prices globally to spike, as the U.S. and its allies vowed to not buy oil from Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer.

Federal debt: The federal government’s national debt of $35.2 trillion is more than 25% higher than the day Biden took office, after rising 39% during Trump’s presidency, up from $19.95 trillion in Jan. 2017—with the U.S. running a total deficit of $5.85 trillion from its 2021 to 2023 fiscal years, compared to $2.43 trillion from 2017 to 2019 and a record $3.13 trillion in 2020 alone.

News Peg

Harris will formally accept her party’s presidential nomination at the DNC this week, after Biden ended his reelection bid amid pressure from the party over a shaky debate performance and low poll numbers. Harris’ ascension has reversed some of the party’s fortunes: One poll sponsored by The Financial Times showed voters trust Harris slightly more than Trump on the economy, 42% to 41%, a major reversal from Trump’s six-point edge over Biden last month (the margin of error is 3.1 points). Harris has campaigned partly on the Biden administration’s economic record even though voters have been skeptical of it in the past, touting the country’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Key Background

The economy is the top issue named by voters ahead of the November presidential election, according to many polls. Research also indicates Americans had more belief in Trump than Biden to oversee the economy, with Biden earning the lowest confidence to do the right thing for the economy of any president since George W. Bush in 2008 amid the Great Recession, according to a Gallup survey. The shaky trust comes even as the Biden Administration has touted the achievements under his presidency, such as all-time high stock prices, GDP growth and the success of policies like his CHIPS act which predated the artificial intelligence boom.