“We don’t have inflation,” President Donald Trump said in an interview with CBS last weekend, asserting that “food prices are going down.”

It wasn’t the first time he made such a claim. In recent months, Trump has repeatedly declared that the U.S. is not facing inflation, arguing that energy and consumer prices are falling — part of his ongoing push for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Reports show that inflation is indeed far below its peak under former President Joe Biden’s administration. But it hasn’t disappeared. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September rose 3% year over year — lower than expected, but still the highest since January and above the Fed’s 2% target.

Inflation eased during the first four months of the year but picked up again later, partly due to higher import tariffs.

According to a new CNN poll, 72% of respondents say the economy feels unstable, while 47% list the economy and cost of living as their top concerns. Another survey by ABC News and The Washington Post earlier this month found that two-thirds of Americans believe the economy is “seriously off track,” and about 60% blame Trump for current inflation levels. The same percentage disapprove of his handling of tariffs, economic policy, and federal management.

Analysts warn that the president may be repeating his predecessor’s mistake — denying the economic pain that Americans are feeling.

In June 2022, with gas prices hitting record highs and inflation at a 40-year peak, then-President Biden downplayed the crisis by emphasizing economic growth instead. “Look, we’re the fastest-growing economy in the world,” he told ABC, while acknowledging inflation was a challenge but insisting price increases were “mostly about food and gas.”

That tone-deaf response, many argue, contributed to the Democrats’ losses in last year’s presidential election. By 2024, affordability had become Americans’ biggest worry — and even though inflation slowed, prices stayed high.

“Wages are up, inflation has cooled from 9% to 3%. It’s the lowest in the world and still falling,” Biden declared in his 2024 State of the Union Address. But voters were unconvinced. His speech ignored the cumulative toll that rising prices had already taken on American households.

Trump’s approach differs in tone but may lead to the same outcome. While Biden admitted prices were still rising, Trump is flat-out denying that inflation exists at all.

Analysts note that Americans tend to react negatively when politicians dismiss their lived experiences — especially when they’re reminded daily at grocery stores, gas stations, and rent offices of how much more things cost.

Trump once used inflation as a political weapon against Biden, accusing his predecessor of being out of touch with the public’s economic pain. During campaign stops, Trump would sometimes pose with grocery items, pointing out how expensive they’d become.

But after taking office, inflation has become his own political problem — one he can no longer blame on the previous administration. A new CNN poll found that roughly 60% of Americans now say Trump’s policies have made the economy worse.

Beyond frustration with high prices, consumers are changing their behavior. In recent earnings reports, companies like Chipotle, Coca-Cola, and Crocs said middle- and lower-income customers had begun cutting back on spending.

Even though overall economic data remains strong, weakening job growth and the winding down of federal support programs have stoked public anxiety. Defaults and late payments are also ticking up again.

The underlying issue is cumulative inflation. Years of price increases have left goods far more expensive, even if inflation’s pace has slowed dramatically since Biden’s time in office.

According to Moody’s Analytics, the average American household now spends $208 more per month than it did in September 2024 for the same basket of goods and services. Compared with early 2021, that figure jumps to $1,043 more per month.

Last week, after the Fed announced a rate cut, Chair Jerome Powell remarked that “consumers don’t care about political narratives.”
“The prices they pay are higher,” Powell said. “You can say inflation isn’t rising as fast, but people clearly see their costs are much higher than two or three years ago.” He added that inflation “remains very frustrating for the public.”

Powell noted that time — and wage growth — would help ease the pressure. “They’ll feel better eventually, but it’s going to take time,” he said.

In a book published earlier this year, Democratic strategist David Plouffe reflected on what he called his party’s major mistake: denying the reality voters were living.
“As the party in power,” he wrote, “we should never tell people that what they’re seeing with their own eyes isn’t real.”